Chaos Rising Pull Rates Revealed: How Many Packs to Hit Every Secret?

Chaos Rising has been out for a week now, and early opening data is starting to give us a reliable picture of what to expect from a pack. This guide breaks down the hit pool, realistic pull rates per rarity, how many packs it takes to hit a specific SIR, and what master setting this set actually costs you.

The Hit Pool

Chaos Rising is a compact set at 122 cards — the fourth entry in the Mega Evolution block. A tighter card pool is generally good news for collectors because your hits aren’t spread across 200+ cards. Here’s what you’re actually chasing:

• Mega Greninja ex — Special Illustration Rare (SIR): The flagship pull. Full art treatment on the main antagonist. High demand from both collectors and Greninja fans.
• Cinccino ex — Special Illustration Rare (SIR): Character-focused SIR. These tend to perform better long-term than people expect at launch.
• Mega Floette ex — Special Art Rare (SIR): The main story antagonist with a stunning full-art. Tied into the AZ storyline — strong collector appeal.
• AZ’s Tranquility — Special Art Rare (SIR): A quiet, character-driven piece. AZ and Floette together. This is the sentimental pick of the set.
• Roxie’s Performance — Special Art Rare (SIR): Roxie from Black and White gets her spotlight. Already popular with Unova-era fans.
• Mega Greninja ex — Mega Hyper Rare (MHR): Inverted etched metallic gold border. The trophy pull of the set. Very low pull rate, very high ceiling.

Pull Rates at a Glance

These figures are based on early box opening data combined with standard Scarlet & Violet era pull rate patterns. They’ll tighten up as more data comes in, but they’re close enough to plan around:

• Any rare hit (Double Rare or better): approximately 1 in every 3 packs
• Illustration Rare (IR): approximately 1 in every 9–10 packs
• Ultra Rare (UR): approximately 1 in every 10-12 packs
• Special Illustration Rare (any SIR): approximately 1 in every 80–90 packs
• Mega Hyper Rare: approximately 1 in every 1000 packs

How Many Packs to Hit a Specific SIR?

The pull rate for any SIR is approximately 1 in 80-90 packs. Because the SIR slot is split evenly between multiple, the expected packs per specific SIR lands at:

Approximately 540 packs for a copy of a specific SIR.

Open or Buy Singles?

The honest answer for Chaos Rising is: buy singles for anything you specifically want.

The set is enjoyable to open — 36-pack boxes with a tighter hit pool feel more satisfying than larger sets — but the SIR pull rates are punishing if you’re targeting specific cards. Mega Floette ex and AZ’s Tranquility in particular are the kind of pulls where the singles market will almost always beat the pack math.

If you’re opening for fun or to stock sealed product, Chaos Rising is a solid set. If you’re building a specific collection or binder, singles are the move. As always, TCG Tavern stocks singles from the set — if you’re after a specific card, check the listings before committing to boxes.